DOD as of Sep 2018 (14 baht)

DOD as of Sep 2018 (14 baht)

Net Profit 2Q'18 = 111+112 = 223 MB

Net Profit 2018(F) = 345 MB   --> EPS = 0.84

ปี 2019 เดา = 0.9-1

PE20 = 20 baht (42% upside)

Story Drive PE:
- Factory Standard and Major Share Holder
- No Debt and Very good cash flow
- use Cap now 70% (still have room)
- ODM still strong from strictly control by Government
- House Brand
- Gelly / Soft GEL / แพทย์แผนไทย และแพทย์ทางเลือก / โรงสกัด run on Q4'19 

THANI as of Sep 2018

THANI as of Sep 2018 (7.8 baht per share)

Port อาจโตเยอะ 20-30% แต่เจอ Dilute จากหุ้นปันผล 4:1 (20% dilute) ทำให้ปีนี้ EPS Growth may be 10%

I guessimate around 0.53-0.55 bps

PE10 = a lot downside
PE15 = Fair

Set status as of Sep 03, 2018

Set status as of Sep 03, 2018

SET Index = 1721  PE = 16.97  (Thai Government 10 year Bond = 2.76% as per July 2018)
Yield Gap = 3.13%

 

 

Billy B. = Still BEAR แบบกำลังวิ่งขึ้น
O'Neil   = Still Correction (น่าจะเริ่มมี FT day บ้างแล้ว)

 

% SET compare to EMA50 = +3.1% (ถ้า 5% ถือว่าค่อนข้าง peak ทีเดียว!!!)

 

 

 

 

 

Aug2018 Winner

CACC (NASDAQ) as of Aug 2018 (450 usd)

CACC (NASDAQ) as of Aug 2018 (450 usd)

say EPS2019 approx. = 32 usd per share
PE15= 480 (6% upside)
PE20 = 640 (42% upside)

LIT projection for 2019

LIT projection for 2019

Concern:
- PORT growth
- NPL
- Coverage policy
- Margin (NIM)

SAWAD after Q2'18 annouce

SAWAD after Q2'18 announce

  - Use Model Q2'18 and Port Growth this year 35000 MB and next year 30%, EPS Projection as shown

  - Reduce position and wait for next year2019

Set status as of Aug 01, 2018

Set status as of Aug 01, 2018

SET Index = 1722  PE = 17.57  (Thai Government 10 year Bond = 2.8% as per June 2018)
Yield Gap = 2.89%

 

 

Billy B. = Still BEAR
O'Neil   = Correction

 

% SET compare to EMA50 = +2.7% (ถ้า 5% ถือว่าค่อนข้าง peak ทีเดียว!!!)

 

 

 

July2018 Winner