YTD 2018 assesment

YTD 2018 assesment

- Return = -4.2%
- SET = -10.8% หักปันผล เหลือติดลบประมาณ 8%

A tough year 2018, SET history and Gold history

A tough year 2018, SET history and Gold history

MTC as of Q3'18-Q4'18

MTC as of Q3'18-Q4'18

Set status as of Dec 03, 2018

Set status as of Dec 03, 2018

SET Index = 1672  PE = 15.84  (Thai Government 10 year Bond = 2.85% as per Oct 2018)
Yield Gap = 3.46%

Billy B. = BEAR
O'Neil   = Correction

 

% SET compare to EMA50 = ติดลบ (ถ้า 5% ถือว่าค่อนข้าง peak ทีเดียว!!!)

 

 

 

SAWAD Q3'61 (Actual)

SAWAD Q3'61 (Actual)

1) Net profit = 766 MB, EPS = 0.67

2) Revenue = 2,106 MB

3) PORT = 31,325 MB

4) NPL = 1187 MB, Coverage = 762 MB (Coverage Ratio=64%)

- Revenue per PORT and Net Profit per PORT is highly increasing.

- If use Q3'61 as Model, Result is as following:

 

Expecting SAWAD Q3'18 (F)

Expecting SAWAD Q3'18 (F)

1) Net profit = 644 MB, EPS = 0.56

2) Revenue = 2,010 MB

3) PORT = 31,700 MB

4) NPL = 1570 MB, Coverage = 985 MB

Gross Refining Margin Chart and Involved Thai Stock

Gross Refining Margin Chart and Involved Thai Stock

https://www.neste.com/corporate-info/investors/market-data/refining-margins-0

Set status as of Nov 01, 2018

Set status as of Nov 01, 2018

SET Index = 1667  PE = 16.49  (Thai Government 10 year Bond = 2.81% as per Sep 2018)
Yield Gap = 3.25%

Billy B. = BEAR
O'Neil   = Correction

 

% SET compare to EMA50 = ติดลบ (ถ้า 5% ถือว่าค่อนข้าง peak ทีเดียว!!!)

 

Stock Winner YTD as of Oct2018

Stock Winner YTD as of Oct2018

https://www.facebook.com/longtunman/photos/a.113656345833649/446724335860180/?type=3&theater

Each Market Size (as of Oct 2018)

Each Market Size (as of Oct 2018)

From Page Cryptonist
https://www.facebook.com/CryptonistOfficial/

SAWAD chart from Aug to Sep 2018

SAWAD chart from Aug to Sep 2018

Set status as of Oct 01, 2018

Set status as of Oct 01, 2018

SET Index = 1760  PE = 17.38  (Thai Government 10 year Bond = 2.73% as per Aug 2018)
Yield Gap = 3.02%

Billy B. = Still BEAR แบบกำลังวิ่งขึ้น
O'Neil   = มี FT day หลายวันแล้ว แต่ไม่รู้ Confirm Uptrend ยัง

 

% SET compare to EMA50 = +3.0% (ถ้า 5% ถือว่าค่อนข้าง peak ทีเดียว!!!)

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 2018 Winner

มากันเพียบ

การเลือกตั้ง v.s. สถิติ SET

การเลือกตั้ง v.s. สถิติ SET

DOD as of Sep 2018 (14 baht)

DOD as of Sep 2018 (14 baht)

Net Profit 2Q'18 = 111+112 = 223 MB

Net Profit 2018(F) = 345 MB   --> EPS = 0.84

ปี 2019 เดา = 0.9-1

PE20 = 20 baht (42% upside)

Story Drive PE:
- Factory Standard and Major Share Holder
- No Debt and Very good cash flow
- use Cap now 70% (still have room)
- ODM still strong from strictly control by Government
- House Brand
- Gelly / Soft GEL / แพทย์แผนไทย และแพทย์ทางเลือก / โรงสกัด run on Q4'19 

THANI as of Sep 2018

THANI as of Sep 2018 (7.8 baht per share)

Port อาจโตเยอะ 20-30% แต่เจอ Dilute จากหุ้นปันผล 4:1 (20% dilute) ทำให้ปีนี้ EPS Growth may be 10%

I guessimate around 0.53-0.55 bps

PE10 = a lot downside
PE15 = Fair

Set status as of Sep 03, 2018

Set status as of Sep 03, 2018

SET Index = 1721  PE = 16.97  (Thai Government 10 year Bond = 2.76% as per July 2018)
Yield Gap = 3.13%

 

 

Billy B. = Still BEAR แบบกำลังวิ่งขึ้น
O'Neil   = Still Correction (น่าจะเริ่มมี FT day บ้างแล้ว)

 

% SET compare to EMA50 = +3.1% (ถ้า 5% ถือว่าค่อนข้าง peak ทีเดียว!!!)

 

 

 

 

 

Aug2018 Winner

CACC (NASDAQ) as of Aug 2018 (450 usd)

CACC (NASDAQ) as of Aug 2018 (450 usd)

say EPS2019 approx. = 32 usd per share
PE15= 480 (6% upside)
PE20 = 640 (42% upside)

LIT projection for 2019

LIT projection for 2019

Concern:
- PORT growth
- NPL
- Coverage policy
- Margin (NIM)

SAWAD after Q2'18 annouce

SAWAD after Q2'18 announce

  - Use Model Q2'18 and Port Growth this year 35000 MB and next year 30%, EPS Projection as shown

  - Reduce position and wait for next year2019

Set status as of Aug 01, 2018

Set status as of Aug 01, 2018

SET Index = 1722  PE = 17.57  (Thai Government 10 year Bond = 2.8% as per June 2018)
Yield Gap = 2.89%

 

 

Billy B. = Still BEAR
O'Neil   = Correction

 

% SET compare to EMA50 = +2.7% (ถ้า 5% ถือว่าค่อนข้าง peak ทีเดียว!!!)

 

 

 

July2018 Winner

 

 

Half Year 2018 Performance (เกินมาเดือนนึง)

Half Year 2018 Performance (เกินมาเดือนนึง)

As of July 31 '2018
  Mine = -4% (include yield)
 SET = -3% (no yield)
แพ้กระจุย

Case study KTC July2018

Case study KTC July2018

Case study GGC สินค้าหาย 2000 MB (June2018)

Case study GGC สินค้าหาย 2000 MB (June2018)